The pickup in inflation, and the slowdown in hiring, are still relatively moderate compared with the extreme stagflationary episodes of the past, such as during the 1970s. In a “normal” business-cycle slowdown, weaker payrolls growth is expected to lead to softer inflation. The question is whether this time is different?

Inflation control is a key measure of the Federal Reserve’s performance in any cycle, and U.S. President Donald Trump has made it clear he thinks Chair Jay Powell’s team has done a poor job in this area.

Inflation rose last month as the price of gas, groceries, and airfares jumped, while a measure of layoffs also increased, putting the Federal Reserve in a tough spot as it prepares to cut rates at its meeting next week despite persistent price pressures.